President Clinton used the phrase "It is the economy stupid" to explain his defeat of George Bush in the US Presidential election of 1992.
This now very familiar expression aptly describes the rout of Deutscher and Hackett in its rooms in Melbourne's South Yarra on March 26.
The company ventured where others had trodden before, and brought down the hammer on its first sale of Important Aboriginal Art.
The move had initially been considered very courageous as previous attempts had been made by others in far better economic climate. They had also failed largely in the face of Sotheby's domination of the more profitable upper echelon of the market.
D and H's venture seems to have been large torpedoed by a sick economy.
None of the usual excuses for a sub-prime result, to borrow another new age term, appeared to explain the disappointing outcome of this valiant effort.
Seldom had such a mountain of collector goodwill generated before an auction. The offering was very presentable and the estimates conservative.
Even art traders who do not venture into non-indigenous art, but who turned up at the viewings remarked upon this.
The sale grossed $1.26 million (without premium) against pre-sale estimates of $2 million to $3 million, the total blowing out to $1.39 million with the 20 per cent buyers premium.
Of the 256 lots offered, 147 lots sold, representing just over 57 per cent sold by value and 55 per cent by lot.
In what is a traditional response to auctions in a recession, buyers sat on their hands and waited to see what was available for sale afterwards.
D and H's Aboriginal art specialist Crispin Gutteridge claimed the total was within budget, and the company would press ahead with further sales.
Compounding the adverse economic circumstances and a worrying pointer for anonymous multi-vendor sales of both indigenous and non-indigenous art, was the sale's lack of a raison d'etre.
Nobody was selling (as far as was known) because they had to. The auction was a put together to boost turnover for a relative newcomer to the market at a time of dire shortage of stock in the non-indigenous market.
Buyers prefer sellers, particularly in hard times, to have a liquidity problem. Collectors take over from the speculators and investors and want the same kind of bargains they are getting in other asset fields.
This time, only one vendor, property developer Steven Bush, was named and he was selling a very small part of his collection.
According to D and H's specialist Crispin Gutteridge, Bush had consigned a few works to auction only because, as the publisher of a new magazine on Aboriginal art, he wanted to support the development of a vigorous and discriminate market in indigenous art.
He also lacked the celebrity factor of a Versace or Yves St Laurent to give the broader celebrity value to the sale, as generated by two recent London antique auctions.
Patrons of non-indigenous sales will be watching closely to see if the wow factor (wow he or she is selling!) will be a factor in the non-indigenous sales too.
The sale otherwise had so much going for it. As number two at Sotheby's tribal department over many years, Gutteridge had been able to put together a very select if unambitiious offering at affordable prices.
This was very different to the non-indigenous sales, where vendors were holding off for fear of a massacre.
There were no big expensive drawcards at the Aboriginal sale - but in the eceonomic environment they would have been surplus to requirements.
None of the lots represented the really big money, which is hard to attract in financially stressed times.
The sale was an assault on the second, relatively price accessible, tier of the market Sotheby's had been busily concentrating on sales with a smaller number of higher value artworks.
Many potential vendors were way ahead on purchase prices despite a moderation of prices in the mid noughties.
They could be persuaded to be flexible with reserves.
So most lots were offered without being very big asks even in the light of slashed commodity, property and equity prices.
There were also none of the hastily dashed-off paintings which might end up in thrift stores like St Vincents de Paul's all too kindly released into the market by some of the less vigilant community arts advisers when they should not have been.
D and H also appears to have taken a tough line on provenance. Obvious carpet-bagged works were elusive. The sale was no greedy money grab.
The offering was neatly balanced between barks and acrylics, early and later works, and works from older and newer communities.
But the bubble was still popping after last year's shakeout. and not only the lesser works suffered.
Very fine works fell by the wayside. along with the second ranking. Because there were so few buyers, the results were erratic and without consistency.
Trends were hard to spot. Just as they seemed to unwind they were contradicted.
There appeared to be the time-honoured response in stressed-out times of turning safety in the traditional.
Barks appeared to bathe in this, along with the few boards from the beginnings of the dot painting movement in 1972.
Melbourne art consultant Ian Rogers kicked off the auction by buying for a client the first three lots, paying $19,200 ($16,000 hammer against $8,000 to $12,000 estimates - estimates do not take into account buyers premium) for the highest priced of these.
This was a strong note as the circa 1994 Dird Djang, Moon Dreaming was highly abstract and therefore surely tougher work than emus pecking the ground.
The delightful early (circa 1954) Dancing Figures by David Milaybuma was passed in at $6500 hammer against estimates of $8000 to $10,000.
Big names were sought after, but several works by unknown artists also participated in the occasional glow.
Steve Bush's two Emilys did well. The first large work was a mixture of robust and subtle.
Emily almost apeared to have attacked the canvas, so vigorous was the paintwork in some areas.
Her suite of three small works called Body Paint of 1994 seemed to attract the most bidding interest of any lot in the and soared to $30,000 against $15,000.
Yet the retina-searing (bright red) larg-ish Anooralya also soared way over its estimate to make $87,000 ($72,500 hammer) against an expected $50,000 to $60,000.
A rare panorama of a beautiful section of the West MacDonnell ranges by Albert Namajira was sold for $13,200 against an unambitious estimate of $12,000 to $15,000 .
Paddy Bedford's Fig Tree Hole of 1998 failed to sell apparently buyers not being as as enthused by early work like this as they are for his later.
However, Melbourne dealer William Mora had already held an exhibition from the artist's estate in February, which had sold well, and taken some of the money available for the artist's work out of the system
Kitty Kantilla's Jilamara, one of her finest works, was passed in at $26,000 against $30,000 to $40,000, a disappointment for a star whose fortunes have gone contrarily against her despite her death in 2003 been contrary to the exhibition at the NGV.
The fortunes of Kimberley artist Queenie McKenzie, benefitted little from her contemporary exhibition at Coo-ee Gallery, Sydney and recent publication of a handsome book on her work. Her Bower Bird Dreaming on Texas Downs Station of 1994 attracted an unsuccessful best bid of $22,000 (estimate $25,000 to $35,000).
Some newly popular artists went off the boil when Pincher Talunga's Designs of 2001, a light red small-dotted dotted work was passed in at $9,500 against estimates of $10,000 to $15,000 and Prince of Wales' Body Marks bid to $14,000 fell short of its $18,000 to $25,000 estimate. (It sold, however,soon afterwards)
The best bid on another such artist, Dennis Nona's large linocut Sesserae (Badu Island Story) of 2004-05 at $8500 was well short of the $10,000 lower estimate and even further short of the latest reported retail.
Brook Andrew benefitted little from last year's excitingly exzperimental exhibition in Utrecht with the lesser of his two published Sexy and Dangerous series going unsold.
Rogers paid $51,600 for the dazzler of the sale, the early Papunya Tula board, an exercise in seductive pinks and rouges, by Mick Namarari Tjapaltjarri called, Tingara Cycle Dreaming ($40,000 to $60,000) consisting of his signature linked concentric cycles symbolising ancestral journeys.
Melbourne dealer Malcolm Davidson also turned up the heat on the boards, giving $22,800 for Untitled (Ceremonial Ground) which had been found in Alice Springs when playing footall, and was by an artist unknown by an unknown artist.
Large works tended to suffer the fate of much contemporary art. People do not have space for it and companies are not buying. A classic large Untitled work of 1981 by Pinta Tjapanangka which ten years ago would have made $20,000 went begging at $10,000 to $15,000
Leading Papunya artist Tim Leura's Wallaby Dreaming at 178 by 157 metres was bid to $90,000 against a pricey $100,000 to $120,000.
Balgo artists were mixed to strong although with the reluctance growing as the works strayed away from the wonderful fruit salad colours of the early days. In a subdued palette Elizabeth Nungurrayi's large Parwallaof 2006 work was not seriously wanted with the best bid of $34,000 compared to a $40,000 lower estimate.
Long thin tall sculptures did well perhaps because all the wall space in private homes and galleries was now taken. Mimi Spirits by Maningrida artists Samson Bonson and Crusoe Kurddall found ready homes at $2,000 to $3,000.
Also thin, vertical - and unusual - the second most keenly bid item in the sale appeared to be the digeridu by John Mawurndjul which sold for $6,000 against $2000 to $3000.
THERE WAS less of a suggestion of a recession at the mixed vendor sale of Australian art held by Menzies Art Brands in Sydney on the same night.
A very large crowd, perhaps out of curiosity as to where the market was heading: do investors switch to art when financial securities turn bad or do they sit on their hands? But signs of a shakeout were elusive.
The published total of $4,636,225 (excluding 20 per cent buyers premium) was reminiscent of boomtimes - even allowing for some works selling below or just nudging the lower estimates.
Altogether 210 works out of 250 offered appeared to find homes.
The figures, representing an incredible 84 per cent sale by volume and 69 per cent by value only included auction night sales with no post sale or private treaty sales, the CEO Litsa Veldekis insisted.
Fresh to the market, Russell Drysdale's The Young Ringer 1957, sold for $420,000 plus 20 per cent buyers premium against estimates of $400,000 to $500,000.
This was no auction retread and had a good provenance - a label from London's Leicester Galleries 1958.
Sketchy, this, the catalogue cover painting of a fast shearer at work, went to a well dressed, obviously city gent, in the room.
The sale of the work to a bidder in the room was refreshing, given the dominant auction practice nowadays of telephone bidding.
